Empirical Prediction of Computer-Network Evolution

This article presents a computer-aided integration tool, iCAD, that can predict a network evolution. We have used the term a network evolution to mean predicting changes within the physical network topology as time evolves. iCAD is connected to four device libraries, each of which contains a distinct set of network-technology devices, such as Ethernet hubs, ATM switches, IP routers, and gateways. As a network technology changes, each device library is updated. Then, we have plotted the cost and performance changes between the old and recent network technologies, enabling us to predict future changes to a first order. This article presents empirical results from 1999 until 2005 recording the network evolution progress, where the lower and upper bounds of network evolution came out to be 10% to 25% and 57% to 74% respectively in terms of network-design cost reduction.